PUBLICATIONS

Transition(s) 2050. Choisir maintenant. Agir pour le climat
2022
Callonnec G., Gouëdard H. and Jolivet P.

L’ADEME a élaboré quatre scénarios de transition énergétique visant à atteindre la neutralité carbone à l’horizon 2050. Cette étude montre clairement qu’un découplage entre le produit intérieur brut (PIB) et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre territoriales est tout à fait possible. Aucun des quatre scénarios n’engendre de récession par rapport au niveau actuel de l’activité économique. Mieux encore, trois d’entre eux génèrent un taux de croissance annuel légèrement supérieur à celui du tendanciel.

Évaluation macroéconomique de la Stratégie nationale bas-carbone (SNBC2) avec le modèle ThreeME
2022
Callonnec G. and Cancé R.

This exercise highlights that energy transition may be a source of growth and employment. Indeed, according to these simulations, the SNBC2 strategy would have a gradual positive effect on GDP of 2.5% in 2030, then of 3.8% in 2050, making it possible to create nearly 900 000 jobs by 2050, i.e. an additional 38 000 jobs per year on average, thanks to the spillover effects of investments, the decrease in the energy bill and the reduction in external dependency on fossil fuels.

ThreeME Version 3: Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the
Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy - A full description
2021
Reynés F., Callonnec G., Saussay A., Landa G., Malliet P., Gueret A., Hu J., Hamdi-Cherif M. and Gouëdard H.

This document provides a full and detailed description of the third version of the ThreeME model. Compared to standard multi-sector CGE models, ThreeME has the advantage to allow for the existence of under-optimum equilibria such as the presence of involuntary unemployment. Secondly, ThreeME is a hybrid model and includes a bottom up model where energy use is related to the number of buildings or cars, and the energy class to which they belong. ThreeME is an open source model and the full model code is available on Github: https://github.com/fosem/ThreeME_V3-open.

Evaluation d’un scenario SNBC 2 sans hausse de taxe carbone et sans prix-fictifs ad hoc
2020
Callonnec G., Gouëdard H. and Jolivet P.

Le Haut Conseil pour le Climat (HCC) a sollicité l’ADEME afin de modéliser les effets énergétiques et macroéconomiques d’une variante de la Stratégie Nationale Bas carbone 2 (SNBC 2) sans les prix fictifs ad hoc qui ont été introduits dans l’évaluation de la SNBC 2.

Les effets macroeconomiques d'une relance dans la transition d'energetique
2020
Callonnec G., Gouëdard H. and Jolivet P.

Le Haut Conseil pour le Climat a sollicité l’ADEME afin de modéliser les effets macroéconomiques d’un surcroît d’investissement compatible avec les besoins de financement de la transition, comparativement aux investissements actuellement en vigueur. Dans le contexte de crise liée au Covid-19, et suite à la publication par l’Institut pour l’Economie du Climat (I4CE) d’un plan de relance bas carbone, il a été décidé conjointement par le HCC et l’ADEME de modéliser les effets macroéconomiques de l’accroissement des dépenses publiques proposés par ce plan de relance, calibré afin d’atteindre certains objectifs sectoriels de la Stratégie Nationale Bas Carbone 2 (bâtiment, mobilité, électricité renouvelable).

Strátegie nationale bas-carbone - Rapport d’accompagnement
2020
Callonnec G. and Cancé R.

This exercise highlights that energy transition may be a source of growth and employment. Indeed, according to these simulations, the SNBC2 strategy would have a gradual positive effect on GDP of 2.5% in 2030, then of 3.8% in 2050, making it possible to create nearly 900 000 jobs by 2050, i.e. an additional 38 000 jobs per year on average, thanks to the spillover effects of investments, the decrease in the energy bill and the reduction in external dependency on fossil fuels.

Assessing short-term and long-term economic and environmental effects of the COVID-19 crisis in France
2020
Environmental Resource Economics
Malliet, P., Reynes, F., Landa, G., Hamdi-Cherif, M. and Saussay, A.

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels.

Les effets macroéconomiques et environnementaux de la fiscalité carbone
2019
Callonnec G. and Combaud M.

Ce rapport examine la manière dont l’introduction ou la hausse d’une taxe carbone modifie les choix des acteurs économiques, ce qui influe à la fois sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et sur les grands agrégats macroéconomiques comme le PIB, l’emploi ou l’investissement. Il étudie notamment la possibilité qu’une hausse de la fiscalité des carburants et des combustibles fossiles en France permette d’atteindre un « double dividende », au sens d’une réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre s’accompagnant d’une hausse du PIB. Il doit se lire en parallèle du rapport particulier microéconomique, qui détaille les effets d’une hausse de la taxe carbone sur les ménages et les entreprises.

The Cobb–Douglas function as a flexible function
2019
Mathematical Social Sciences
Reynès F.

This article provides the theoretical foundations of the production function used in the ThreeME model. By defining the Variable Output Elasticities Cobb-Douglas function, it shows that a large class of production functions can be written as a Cobb-Douglas function with non-constant output elasticity. This approach has a practical application for CGE modeling since it allows for a tractable generalization of the CES function to the case where the elasticity of substitution between each pair of inputs is not necessarily the same.

Energy transition, a lever for economic development and local employment [in French]
2018
ADEME

This study evaluates the economic impact of an energy positive scenario in the Occitania region using the ThreeME model. It presents the approach used to rescale the national version of ThreeME at the level of Occitania. It shows that energy transition has positive economic impacts and is an opportunity to create jobs at the local level.

Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in the Netherlands
2018
Renewable Energy
Bulavskaya T. and Reynès R.

This article evaluates the economic impact of a shift towards renewable electricity mix in the Netherlands using the ThreeME model. We find that transition to renewable energy may have a positive impact on the Dutch economy, creating almost 50 000 new jobs by 2030 and adding almost 1% of gross domestic product. The study also proposes an approach to decompose direct, indirect and price effects.

The State of Applied Environmental Macroeconomics
2018
Revue de l'OFCE
Landa Rivera G., Malliet P., Saussay A. & Reynès F.

By providing an essay on the state of the art in applied environmental macroeconomics, this article puts the ThreeME model into perspective with the existing literature. It compares the theoretical and empirical foundations, advantages and drawbacks of the two main classes of models: Integrated assessment models (IAM) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models.

Assessing low carbon and resilient growth in Indonesia: an application of the ThreeME model
2017
Reynès F., Malliet P. and Marizi N.

This report evaluates the economic impact of investment plan scenarios in power generation capacities in Indonesia using the ThreeME model. The RUPTL scenario, largely based on investments in coal power plants until 2020, shows a clear reorientation toward the development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) after this date. The second scenario is based on the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP) and is more ambitious in terms of development of RES. DDPP scenario has a slightly more positive economic effect compared to the RUPTL scenario. These results advocate for considering the deep decarbonisation of the electricity mix.

Towards a low carbon growth in Mexico: is a double dividend possible? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment
2016
Energy Policy
Landa G., Reynès F., Islas I., Bellocq F., Grazi F.

This article simulates the environmental and economic impacts of proposed and expected energy policies using the Mexican version of ThreeME. ThreeME estimates the carbon tax required to meet emissions reduction targets within the Mexican “Climate Change Law”. With no compensation, the taxation policy would reduce CO2 emissions by more than 75% by 2050 with respect to the Business as Usual (BAU), but at high economic costs. Under full redistribution of carbon tax revenues, a double dividend arises: the policy appears beneficial both in terms of GDP and CO2 emissions reduction.

Electricity mix 100% renewable, an macroeconomic evaluation [in French]
2016
Callonnec G., Cals G., Nauleau M., Reynès F., Landa G. and Malliet P.

This study evaluates the economic impact of various energy transition scenarios using the ThreeME model. Several hypotheses regarding the penetration of renewable energy in the electricity production mix and the cost of renewable technologies are investigated. In all cases, it appears that the positive economic effects of energy transition are higher than the negative ones.

Dynamic and long term properties of the ThreeME model: simulation of standard shocks [in French]
2016
Revue de l'OFCE
Callonnec G., Landa G., Malliet P., Reynès F. and Saussay A.

This paper provides an analysis of the dynamic and long-term properties of the ThreeME model. Several scenarios are simulated (an increase in oil prices, a reduction in payroll taxes for employers, an increase in VAT, an increase in public investments and the introduction of a carbon tax) under several hypotheses: a Wage Setting curve versus a Phillips curve, a standard utility function for the consumer versus a hybrid version including a bottom-up representation of housing and private vehicle stocks. The results are also compared with those of the French Treasury's MESANGE model.